With the pandemic, everything that was challenging in our industry—as far as forecasting and supply chain is concerned—has become horribly amplified. There’s a forecasting gap: We’re not taking into account seasonal trending, and we’re not using some of the more advanced methodologies.
The vast majority of what’s being used in our industry—whether it be at the wholesale level or at the brewery level—is rolling-four or rolling-eight forecasts. And those—especially if you’re using a rolling-eight, which in normal times would work well—are going to do terrible things for you. They won’t react quickly to changes, and they won’t tell you where you’re going until you already know you’ve been there.
Contextual Sales Planning
In March, we advised our clients to “grab as much materials as you can possibly get your hands on.” That’s because the trends went crazy, especially for larger packs, such as two-12-pack variety packs. What’s happening now is the opposite—consumers are moving back away from the large packs, and the wholesalers haven’t responded yet. In some cases, we’re watching wholesalers go up to 50 days inventory on ready packs and two-12s right now, because they’re not looking at what’s coming. Granted, there could be another wave, and it could come back into vogue. But those formats are not accelerating away from the train station like they were.