At this point, the state of craft beer in 2025 has become indelibly ingrained in the collective conscience of brewers across North America, and probably around the world.
To zoom in on the United States: Our brewery count has doubled in the past decade while sales have remained static, pulling drinkers in too many directions just as the novelty of craft beer is wearing off. And that’s if they’re still looking for craft beer—cocktails, RTDs, seltzers, hemp-based THC drinks, legal weed, and even online gambling are all vying for their attention. Fewer people drink regularly, and many don’t drink at all. Meanwhile, the costs of goods, rent, and labor have increased in almost inverse relation to the decline in sales. It’s difficult to make ends meet these days.
And that’s in the warmer months.
As temperatures drop, and the holidays wreak annual havoc on budgets for discretionary spending, things get even more difficult in the world of making and selling craft beer. Many brewers stare down a sales dip and cost overrun each winter—one that leaves them in the hole when warmer weather returns—and at best they find themselves playing catch-up come spring and summer.
It doesn’t have to be this way. There are strategies to keep sales coming and costs in line that can get our businesses to break even—or better—when the winter doldrums are upon us. With increased attention to financials, a focus on creative initiatives, and the willingness to think radically about our businesses, 2025 can start on a far brighter note than we might otherwise expect.
Know the Budget, Keep Costs in Check
When a sales slowdown looks inevitable, the first order of business is to review all costs and create an action plan that will bring these numbers in line.
Knowing your sales from past years—coupled with expected spikes in business based on planned initiatives and more recent sales trends—will prepare you to budget your costs to preemptively stop the inevitable bleeding.
It may become immediately apparent that you should curtail hours of operation, close some sections of your taproom or bar, and reduce certain production activities. After making those decisions, you may need to cut labor to match forecasted sales. That will involve cutting hours and even full shifts for some of your employees, but you can temper the pain of lost income by scheduling vacations during the first few weeks of the new year.
You can also offset the loss of traditional income by employing your staff to take on new activities that make sense during slower times of the year. That deep clean you’ve been hoping to tackle for some time would make sense at this point. Maybe there are refurbishments or redesigns you’ve been having trouble scheduling? A fresh coat of paint across the property? Now’s the time to knock out backlogged housekeeping and spruce up your spot.
Salaried management and owners can pivot to cover hourly shifts, from canning and delivery driving to tending bar and making sales calls—and, as a bonus, you get greater engagement with your best customers, both on- and off-premise. With reduced hours and hourly staff, it could also make sense to flex their duties—taproom employees can help with packaging or even some cellar work; brewers can drop beer.
This is the season to get lean and consolidate roles. There are ancillary benefits here, too: Cross-training and cross-utilization will prove invaluable for shift coverage and cost-saving needs in the future.
Photo: Jamie Bogner
Take Advantage, Get Creative
The winter slowdown is also the perfect opportunity for some overdue planning. Slower shifts provide the hours you need to take the long view on 2025 and to put a sales plan into place with renewed vigor. Beyond looking at labor changes for the upcoming year, this is the moment to brainstorm new events and initiatives that will increase current sales projections—and those action items can begin to affect the bottom line right away.
As we head into 2025, gift cards and additional sales incentives can provide a lifeline to your business. We’ve had huge success in offering discounted, cash-up-front wholesale orders during slower times, as well as incentivizing guests to buy gift cards with bonus potential during the holiday and post-holiday season. Issuing a gratis gift card worth up to 50 percent of the initial buy gets a lot of attention, and it can lead to a massive cash infusion. While you will give away some margin, you get low-cost cash up front—and it’s worth noting that around 20 percent of gift cards typically go unredeemed.
This is also the time to actively sell private events. As many customers continue to work from home, their employers are relying on events—from casual happy hour meetups to holiday parties—to help maintain office camaraderie. Spend time researching your target audience, stop by with some cans, and think about ways to maximize your private-event business.
If discounts are unnecessary during the busier holiday weeks, look at incentivizing offices to host their annual events in January, when business is sparse. Great deals can help keep your taproom or bar full, and offices like giving their employees something to look forward to in the new year. In some ways, January can be the new December for these kinds of gatherings, while bulk sales of gift cards, cans, or beer-club memberships can make for perfect office giveaways.
Maximizing volume during the doldrums is important for the bottom line, but also to keep your location humming. Take a fresh look at activating your space for nonbeer activities—think book readings, panel discussions, yoga classes, fun runs, and more. Give in and hang those TVs for all manner of sporting events, but also for boardroom meeting PowerPoint presentations.
Get those work-from-homers out to celebrate their birthdays—perhaps prepaid, for a discount. Take a fresh look at family programming—kid’s birthdays are all the rage. It’s time to rethink all approaches to keep your location lively and create a community hub.
Guests love busy places, so do what you can to keep it buzzing.
Make It Count
It’s no longer enough to make the highest-quality beer, if it ever was, and the colder months put a finer point on that maxim. As brand loyalty declines, we now need to generate location loyalty. With a mindset to build our businesses in adaptable ways, the slower season can even prove to be a blueprint for traditionally busier times.
Let’s make the most of what we have, so we can have more going forward.